Betting on AI

(1) US GDP Growth Limit: The 5-year rolling Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of US Real GDP will not exceed +20% for any 5-year period ending during the bet's term of 2025-2030 (approximately 1.5x the historical maximum 5-year rolling Real GDP CAGR of approx. +13.3% for 1943).

If you feel the CAGR is unfair due to historical 'drag' I would suggest a simplistic '1.5x maximum historical' bet:

(1.1) maximum annual real US GDP growth will not exceed 28% for any of the next five years (based on 18.9% for 1942).